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AI forecasting retrospective: you're (probably) over-confident

Nicholas Carli…
2025-02-09 1 min read

A one-year review of people's predictions on an AI-forecasting survey I made last year. Most people were over-confident in their predictions....

A one-year review of people's predictions on an AI-forecasting survey I made last year. Most people were over-confident in their predictions.
Source: Nicholas Carlini Word count: 121 words
Published on 2025-02-09 08:00